Giveaway Entries Estimator

The median Instagram giveaway drawn on Lukky has 500 to 550 comments; the median Facebook giveaway has 100 to 150; all networks together, about 250 to 300. Lukky data, September 2025 – August 2026, 154,085 draws. An entry here is a comment on the post at the moment Lukky fetched them, an upper bound on unique entrants: duplicates and excluded accounts are removed afterwards.

The distribution is long-tailed. The mean is three to four times the median (about 1,900 on Instagram), because a few very large giveaways pull it up. 15% of draws have under 50 comments, 22% have over 1,000, and 12% have over 2,000.

Almost everything. Median comments per draw by follower count, Instagram business accounts first, Facebook pages in parentheses:

• Under 1,000 followers: 83 (62)
• 1,000 to 5,000: 184 (161)
• 5,000 to 10,000: 373 (181)
• 10,000 to 50,000: 733 (270)
• Over 50,000: 2,114 (626)

Two things follow. A Facebook page draws roughly half the comments of an Instagram account of the same size. And small accounts convert a far larger share of their followers: about 15% under 1,000 followers, 6% at 1,000–5,000, 5% at 5,000–10,000, 2.5% at 10,000–50,000 and 1–2% above 50,000, taking the midpoint of each bracket.

1. Enter your follower count on the account that will host the giveaway.
2. Pick the platform, Instagram or Facebook.
3. Choose how people enter: follow and comment, comment tagging a friend, or comment and share in a story.
4. Set the prize value (under €30, €30 to €150, over €150) and the duration in days, from 1 to 30.
5. Press Estimate. You get the most likely number of entries, the low–high range, and the median measured for accounts of your size on that platform.

The estimate is your followers multiplied by the ratio measured for your account size, then by four factors: mechanic, prize, platform and duration. Three bands of the ratio give the three figures: the most likely one uses the median of weekly medians, the high one the mean, the low one roughly the first quartile.

• Measured on Lukky draws: the comments-per-follower ratio for each account size, its three bands, and the Facebook factor of 0.5.
• Assumptions, documented in the code and not measured: the mechanic multipliers (follow and comment 1, tag a friend 0.65, share in a story 0.35), the prize multipliers (0.7, 1 and 1.4), and the duration curve, under which a week captures most of what a month would.

Lukky's data cannot isolate the mechanic or the prize, because entry conditions are not recorded with the draw.

It counts comments, not people, and it ignores the prize, the caption and the promotion you put behind the post. 79% of Lukky draws pick one winner, 8% two, 10% three and 3% more. The engagement rate calculator tells you whether your account converts above or below its size; the giveaway ideas generator and the caption generator help with the prize and the post; the best time to launch picks the date.

When the giveaway closes, Lukky reads the comments through the official Instagram or Facebook authorisation, removes duplicates and excluded accounts, draws at random and issues a public certificate. Our guide to the Instagram giveaway picker walks through the draw.